Will the highest temperature in Milan be 9°C on November 16?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 99¢ · $334 held · ends Nov 16

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$334.04

Combined PnL

-$0.35

Smart Money Entry

96.9¢ → 98.8¢

+2% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$333.84

Total Shares337

Combined PnL+$1.27

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.2

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$1.62

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 90.1¢	$62.2	$68.12	+$5.91	36% 355-623 (978)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$61.53	$61.42	-$0.11	53% 7612-6705 (14317)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$35.42	$35.27	-$0.15	52% 969-886 (1855)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$35.01	$34.84	-$0.17	30% 1195-2736 (3931)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$32.92	$32.79	-$0.13	36% 378-681 (1059)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99¢	$25.25	$25.18	-$0.06	60% 938-634 (1572)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 91.7¢	$20.16	$20	-$0.16	42% 5253-7309 (12562)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$64.96	$19.79	-$3.95	28% 3336-8584 (11920)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$19.34	$19.44	+$0.1	43% 851-1141 (1992)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$9.92	$9.92	+$0	39% 346-547 (893)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$5.1	$5.1	-$0	58% 914-665 (1579)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$1.99	$1.98	-$0.01	50% 910-924 (1834)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.2	-$1.62	38% 101-166 (267)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$62.2

Value

$68.12

PnL

+$5.91

Record

36%

355-623 (978)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$61.53

Value

$61.42

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

7612-6705 (14317)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$35.42

Value

$35.27

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

969-886 (1855)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$35.01

Value

$34.84

PnL

-$0.17

Record

30%

1195-2736 (3931)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$32.92

Value

$32.79

PnL

-$0.13

Record

36%

378-681 (1059)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$25.25

Value

$25.18

PnL

-$0.06

Record

60%

938-634 (1572)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$20.16

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.16

Record

42%

5253-7309 (12562)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$64.96

Value

$19.79

PnL

-$3.95

Record

28%

3336-8584 (11920)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$19.34

Value

$19.44

PnL

+$0.1

Record

43%

851-1141 (1992)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.92

Value

$9.92

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

346-547 (893)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

914-665 (1579)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$1.99

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

910-924 (1834)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$1.62

Record

38%

101-166 (267)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.