Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on November 16?
5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $69 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 50%
$69.21
-$26.19
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-6 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $21.14 | $21.21 | +$0.07 | 53% 7633-6716 (14349) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $19.92 | $19.99 | +$0.07 | 36% 381-683 (1064) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $9.97 | $10 | +$0.03 | 29% 1126-2794 (3920) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $10 | +$0.01 | 42% 1716-2343 (4059) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $30.35 | $7.97 | -$8.64 | 37% 359-623 (982) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $24.09 | $0.02 | -$5.86 | 28% 3345-8619 (11964) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $28.29 | $0.01 | -$4.39 | 35% 3958-7409 (11367) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.82 | $0.01 | -$1.81 | 38% 103-168 (271) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $21.71 | $0.01 | -$3.52 | 42% 5258-7339 (12597) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $21.3 | $0 | -$2.14 | 23% 821-2761 (3582) |
Invested
$21.14
Value
$21.21
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
7633-6716 (14349)
Invested
$19.92
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0.07
Record
36%
381-683 (1064)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.03
Record
29%
1126-2794 (3920)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.01
Record
42%
1716-2343 (4059)
Invested
$30.35
Value
$7.97
PnL
-$8.64
Record
37%
359-623 (982)
Invested
$24.09
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$5.86
Record
28%
3345-8619 (11964)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$28.29
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$4.39
Record
35%
3958-7409 (11367)
Invested
$1.82
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.81
Record
38%
103-168 (271)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$21.71
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$3.52
Record
42%
5258-7339 (12597)
Invested
$21.3
Value
$0
PnL
-$2.14
Record
23%
821-2761 (3582)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.