Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on November 16?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $157 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$156.8

Combined PnL

$2.6

Smart Money Entry

96.9¢ → 99.3¢

+3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$156.8

Total Shares158

Combined PnL+$2.6

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$51.17	$51.99	+$0.82	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$42.96	$44.71	+$1.75	38% 323-524 (847)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98¢	$19.6	$19.87	+$0.27	35% 88-166 (254)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99¢	$9.9	$9.94	+$0.04	39% 334-532 (866)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90.2¢	$9.02	$9.94	+$0.92	53% 2316-2081 (4397)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$25.19	$5.25	-$1.33	28% 3305-8424 (11729)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$5.1	$5.08	-$0.02	42% 1702-2333 (4035)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$5.07	$5.05	-$0.02	58% 872-632 (1504)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 96¢	$4.8	$4.97	+$0.17	42% 808-1111 (1919)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$51.17

Value

$51.99

PnL

+$0.82

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$42.96

Value

$44.71

PnL

+$1.75

Record

38%

323-524 (847)

123987456<$100

Invested

$19.6

Value

$19.87

PnL

+$0.27

Record

35%

88-166 (254)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$9.94

PnL

+$0.04

Record

39%

334-532 (866)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.02

Value

$9.94

PnL

+$0.92

Record

53%

2316-2081 (4397)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$25.19

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$1.33

Record

28%

3305-8424 (11729)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.08

PnL

-$0.02

Record

42%

1702-2333 (4035)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.07

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

872-632 (1504)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.97

PnL

+$0.17

Record

42%

808-1111 (1919)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.