Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on November 16?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 94¢ · $354 held · ends Nov 16

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$354.27

Combined PnL

$43.33

Smart Money Entry

82.8¢ → 94¢

+13% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$354.09

Total Shares377

Combined PnL+$42.67

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.17

Total Shares3

Combined PnL+$0.66

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch	Noavg 81.9¢	$159.99	$183.6	+$23.61	71% 954-392 (1346)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 82.8¢	$43.38	$49.22	+$5.84	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$31.66	$31.79	+$0.13	42% 808-1111 (1919)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 86¢	$19.82	$21.67	+$1.84	28% 1108-2781 (3889)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75.9¢	$16.45	$20.37	+$3.92	53% 2316-2081 (4397)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 62¢	$12.4	$18.8	+$6.4	31% 1127-2476 (3603)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 92.7¢	$14.01	$14.14	+$0.12	35% 358-677 (1035)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 94¢	$23.77	$4.95	+$0.86	28% 3305-8424 (11729)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 94¢	$4.83	$4.81	-$0.03	60% 888-604 (1492)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 94¢	$4.79	$4.76	-$0.03	52% 959-896 (1855)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.55	$0.17	+$0.66	24% 796-2588 (3384)

Poligarch

Invested

$159.99

Value

$183.6

PnL

+$23.61

Record

71%

954-392 (1346)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$43.38

Value

$49.22

PnL

+$5.84

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$31.66

Value

$31.79

PnL

+$0.13

Record

42%

808-1111 (1919)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$19.82

Value

$21.67

PnL

+$1.84

Record

28%

1108-2781 (3889)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.45

Value

$20.37

PnL

+$3.92

Record

53%

2316-2081 (4397)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$12.4

Value

$18.8

PnL

+$6.4

Record

31%

1127-2476 (3603)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$14.01

Value

$14.14

PnL

+$0.12

Record

35%

358-677 (1035)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$23.77

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.86

Record

28%

3305-8424 (11729)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.83

Value

$4.81

PnL

-$0.03

Record

60%

888-604 (1492)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.79

Value

$4.76

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

959-896 (1855)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.55

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0.66

Record

24%

796-2588 (3384)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.