Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on November 16?
11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 65¢ · $181 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 100%
$180.6
$24.4
61.6¢ → 65¢
+6% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 11 top traders (100%)11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 61.1¢ | $64.78 | $72.08 | +$7.3 | 43% 848-1138 (1986) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 64.4¢ | $39.88 | $41.8 | +$1.92 | 53% 7546-6651 (14197) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 56.3¢ | $12.98 | $15.67 | +$2.7 | 30% 1188-2734 (3922) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $27.63 | $12.9 | +$8.75 | 28% 3331-8552 (11883) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $5.91 | $7.72 | +$1.82 | 53% 2377-2113 (4490) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $6.3 | $6.8 | +$0.5 | 31% 1134-2479 (3613) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $5.9 | $6.8 | +$0.9 | 70% 975-415 (1390) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $6.71 | $6.45 | +$0.55 | 36% 346-622 (968) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $3.5 | $3.47 | -$0.03 | 47% 930-1053 (1983) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $3.43 | $3.46 | +$0.03 | 39% 341-544 (885) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $3.46 | $3.44 | -$0.03 | 60% 929-631 (1560) |
Invested
$64.78
Value
$72.08
PnL
+$7.3
Record
43%
848-1138 (1986)
Invested
$39.88
Value
$41.8
PnL
+$1.92
Record
53%
7546-6651 (14197)
Invested
$12.98
Value
$15.67
PnL
+$2.7
Record
30%
1188-2734 (3922)
Invested
$27.63
Value
$12.9
PnL
+$8.75
Record
28%
3331-8552 (11883)
Invested
$5.91
Value
$7.72
PnL
+$1.82
Record
53%
2377-2113 (4490)
Invested
$6.3
Value
$6.8
PnL
+$0.5
Record
31%
1134-2479 (3613)
Invested
$5.9
Value
$6.8
PnL
+$0.9
Record
70%
975-415 (1390)
Invested
$6.71
Value
$6.45
PnL
+$0.55
Record
36%
346-622 (968)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.47
PnL
-$0.03
Record
47%
930-1053 (1983)
Invested
$3.43
Value
$3.46
PnL
+$0.03
Record
39%
341-544 (885)
Invested
$3.46
Value
$3.44
PnL
-$0.03
Record
60%
929-631 (1560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
241532532432
No — $72.08
cigarettes
No — $41.8
northdrawer
No — $15.67
qwen300.fund
No — $12.9
ghorrock
No — $7.72
mildwindow27
No — $6.8
Poligarch
No — $6.8
smallreceipt
No — $6.45
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $3.47
god83743894
No — $3.46