Will the highest temperature in Milan be 11°C on November 16?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 54¢ · $157 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$156.62
-$46.04
80.3¢ → 54.2¢
-33% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 82¢ | $115.36 | $86.83 | -$28.53 | 54% 1234-1038 (2272) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 82.4¢ | $23.49 | $17.59 | -$5.9 | 53% 2330-2056 (4386) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 82.4¢ | $17.49 | $13.09 | -$4.39 | 53% 7408-6544 (13952) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 91.6¢ | $18.32 | $12.34 | -$5.98 | 28% 1080-2773 (3853) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88.4¢ | $17.69 | $12.34 | -$5.35 | 52% 2230-2031 (4261) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $11.37 | $5.9 | +$2.21 | 24% 767-2452 (3219) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 52.9¢ | $10.58 | $5.34 | +$2.13 | 28% 3272-8320 (11592) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 57.6¢ | $2.88 | $2.66 | -$0.22 | 71% 920-377 (1297) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $0.53 | $0.53 | +$0 | 34% 309-591 (900) |
Invested
$115.36
Value
$86.83
PnL
-$28.53
Record
54%
1234-1038 (2272)
Invested
$23.49
Value
$17.59
PnL
-$5.9
Record
53%
2330-2056 (4386)
Invested
$17.49
Value
$13.09
PnL
-$4.39
Record
53%
7408-6544 (13952)
Invested
$18.32
Value
$12.34
PnL
-$5.98
Record
28%
1080-2773 (3853)
Invested
$17.69
Value
$12.34
PnL
-$5.35
Record
52%
2230-2031 (4261)
Invested
$11.37
Value
$5.9
PnL
+$2.21
Record
24%
767-2452 (3219)
Invested
$10.58
Value
$5.34
PnL
+$2.13
Record
28%
3272-8320 (11592)
Invested
$2.88
Value
$2.66
PnL
-$0.22
Record
71%
920-377 (1297)
Invested
$0.53
Value
$0.53
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
309-591 (900)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.