Will the highest temperature in Milan be 10°C on November 16?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 92¢ · $107 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$107.21
-$3.92
96.3¢ → 91.8¢
-5% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $20.94 | $20.01 | -$0.93 | 53% 7408-6544 (13952) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $19.72 | $18.86 | -$0.86 | 34% 309-591 (900) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $19.1 | $18.39 | -$0.71 | 33% 80-164 (244) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $20.44 | $10.52 | -$0.64 | 24% 767-2452 (3219) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $18.98 | $9.51 | -$0.57 | 28% 3272-8320 (11592) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $9.59 | $9.43 | -$0.16 | 30% 1154-2705 (3859) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 91.8¢ | $9.14 | $9.3 | +$0.16 | 71% 920-377 (1297) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $7.72 | $7.59 | -$0.13 | 36% 291-514 (805) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $3.67 | $3.6 | -$0.07 | 42% 763-1074 (1837) |
Invested
$20.94
Value
$20.01
PnL
-$0.93
Record
53%
7408-6544 (13952)
Invested
$19.72
Value
$18.86
PnL
-$0.86
Record
34%
309-591 (900)
Invested
$19.1
Value
$18.39
PnL
-$0.71
Record
33%
80-164 (244)
Invested
$20.44
Value
$10.52
PnL
-$0.64
Record
24%
767-2452 (3219)
Invested
$18.98
Value
$9.51
PnL
-$0.57
Record
28%
3272-8320 (11592)
Invested
$9.59
Value
$9.43
PnL
-$0.16
Record
30%
1154-2705 (3859)
Invested
$9.14
Value
$9.3
PnL
+$0.16
Record
71%
920-377 (1297)
Invested
$7.72
Value
$7.59
PnL
-$0.13
Record
36%
291-514 (805)
Invested
$3.67
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$0.07
Record
42%
763-1074 (1837)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.