Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (74%). 12 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 9°C on November 15?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 26¢ · $84 held · ended Nov 15

Yes74¢No26¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$83.72

Combined PnL

-$31.1

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 25.8¢

-50% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 74%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$80.59

Total Shares212

Combined PnL-$31

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.13

Total Shares3

Combined PnL-$0.11

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 64.9¢	$23.24	$17.14	-$6.1	71% 950-388 (1338)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 54.3¢	$25.51	$16.64	-$8.87	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 52.7¢	$36.22	$15.88	-$5.91	42% 803-1100 (1903)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 43.8¢	$8.94	$7.23	-$1.71	57% 836-638 (1474)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 43.5¢	$8.51	$6.92	-$1.59	49% 854-884 (1738)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 50.8¢	$5.68	$3.96	-$1.73	58% 864-619 (1483)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 57.9¢	$6.34	$3.88	-$2.46	41% 276-405 (681)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 55.2¢	$3.23	$3.13	-$0.11	52% 909-844 (1753)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 34.7¢	$3.88	$2.48	-$1.41	51% 945-892 (1837)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 28.3¢	$6.76	$2.3	+$4.62	50% 919-925 (1844)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 44.1¢	$4.47	$1.84	-$2.63	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 31.8¢	$0.99	$1.42	+$0.43	47% 887-1007 (1894)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 91.1¢	$4.56	$0.91	-$3.64	53% 2305-2071 (4376)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$23.24

Value

$17.14

PnL

-$6.1

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$25.51

Value

$16.64

PnL

-$8.87

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$36.22

Value

$15.88

PnL

-$5.91

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$8.94

Value

$7.23

PnL

-$1.71

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$8.51

Value

$6.92

PnL

-$1.59

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$5.68

Value

$3.96

PnL

-$1.73

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$6.34

Value

$3.88

PnL

-$2.46

Record

41%

276-405 (681)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$3.13

PnL

-$0.11

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$3.88

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$1.41

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$6.76

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$4.62

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$4.47

Value

$1.84

PnL

-$2.63

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$0.99

Value

$1.42

PnL

+$0.43

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$4.56

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$3.64

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 74%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.8%

25.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$259.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

360.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.