Will the highest temperature in Milan be 10°C on November 15?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 79¢ · $129 held · ended Nov 15

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 79%

Total Value

$129.04

Combined PnL

$27.66

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$119.29

Total Shares148

Combined PnL+$8.89

Yes3 traders

Total Value$9.74

Total Shares43

Combined PnL+$18.77

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$29.78	$32.96	+$3.18	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 68.7¢	$29.37	$27.7	-$1.68	71% 950-388 (1338)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 55¢	$16.2	$23.43	+$7.23	58% 864-619 (1483)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 40.2¢	$36.99	$6.34	-$3.69	42% 803-1100 (1903)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 73¢	$7.28	$6.28	-$1	65% 4374-2391 (6765)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 69¢	$4.14	$4.83	+$0.69	52% 909-844 (1753)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 73¢	$4.54	$4.53	-$0.01	51% 945-892 (1837)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 68¢	$4.85	$4.49	-$0.36	60% 874-593 (1467)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 55.3¢	$3.87	$4.27	+$0.4	41% 276-405 (681)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 69¢	$3.45	$4.2	+$0.75	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.88	$3.97	+$0.1	50% 919-925 (1844)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 73¢	$3.05	$2.63	-$0.42	49% 854-884 (1738)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$1.7	+$1.25	24% 788-2560 (3348)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$33.17	$1.7	+$21.21	35% 3905-7251 (11156)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$29.78

Value

$32.96

PnL

+$3.18

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$29.37

Value

$27.7

PnL

-$1.68

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$16.2

Value

$23.43

PnL

+$7.23

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.99

Value

$6.34

PnL

-$3.69

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$7.28

Value

$6.28

PnL

-$1

Record

65%

4374-2391 (6765)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.14

Value

$4.83

PnL

+$0.69

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.54

Value

$4.53

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.49

PnL

-$0.36

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$3.87

Value

$4.27

PnL

+$0.4

Record

41%

276-405 (681)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0.75

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.88

Value

$3.97

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.05

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.42

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$1.25

Record

24%

788-2560 (3348)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.17

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$21.21

Record

35%

3905-7251 (11156)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.