Will the highest temperature in Milan be 9°C on November 14?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 100¢ · $152 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$152.2

Combined PnL

-$19.55

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 99.9¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$151.32

Total Shares152

Combined PnL+$1.54

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.82

Total Shares207

Combined PnL-$21.09

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$49.86	$50.02	+$0.17	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$29.42	$29.91	+$0.49	30% 1031-2401 (3432)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$25.41	$25.41	+$0	58% 705-507 (1212)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$18.13	$18.13	+$0	49% 769-816 (1585)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$15.07	$15.93	+$0.86	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$6.84	$6.84	+$0	58% 692-501 (1193)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$5.06	$5.09	+$0.02	28% 1016-2624 (3640)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.37	$0.63	-$13.73	31% 157-344 (501)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.01	$0.18	-$3.83	26% 548-1576 (2124)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$35.36	$0.01	-$3.52	36% 3740-6764 (10504)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$49.86

Value

$50.02

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.42

Value

$29.91

PnL

+$0.49

Record

30%

1031-2401 (3432)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$25.41

Value

$25.41

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

705-507 (1212)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$18.13

Value

$18.13

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

769-816 (1585)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.07

Value

$15.93

PnL

+$0.86

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.84

Value

$6.84

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

692-501 (1193)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.09

PnL

+$0.02

Record

28%

1016-2624 (3640)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.37

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$13.73

Record

31%

157-344 (501)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.01

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$3.83

Record

26%

548-1576 (2124)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.36

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.52

Record

36%

3740-6764 (10504)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.