Will the highest temperature in Milan be 8°C on November 14?

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (11%) · No at 100¢ · $160 held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 11%

Total Value

$160.14

Combined PnL

-$39.04

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$159.92

Total Shares160

Combined PnL+$0.24

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.22

Total Shares434

Combined PnL-$39.28

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.8¢	$159.68	$159.92	+$0.24	99% 1293-18 (1311)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.37	$0.08	-$14.29	31% 165-364 (529)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.64	$0.05	-$9.58	63% 739-442 (1181)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.01	$0.02	-$3.98	26% 549-1579 (2128)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.59	$0.02	-$3.57	36% 3765-6817 (10582)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.51	$0.02	-$3.49	43% 5073-6616 (11689)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.02	-$2.71	34% 234-460 (694)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.2	$0.01	-$1.19	55% 2289-1901 (4190)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.46	$0	-$0.46	34% 275-525 (800)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$159.68

Value

$159.92

PnL

+$0.24

Record

99%

1293-18 (1311)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.37

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$14.29

Record

31%

165-364 (529)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.64

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.58

Record

63%

739-442 (1181)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.01

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.98

Record

26%

549-1579 (2128)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.59

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.57

Record

36%

3765-6817 (10582)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.51

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.49

Record

43%

5073-6616 (11689)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.71

Record

34%

234-460 (694)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.19

Record

55%

2289-1901 (4190)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

PnL

-$0.46

Record

34%

275-525 (800)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.