Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 6°C or below on November 14?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $130 held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$130.14

Combined PnL

-$36.49

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$129.94

Total Shares130

Combined PnL+$0.08

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.2

Total Shares404

Combined PnL-$36.57

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$99.9	$99.95	+$0.05	99% 1293-18 (1311)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.96	$29.99	+$0.03	35% 250-467 (717)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.37	$0.08	-$14.29	31% 165-364 (529)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.64	$0.05	-$9.58	63% 739-442 (1181)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.01	$0.02	-$3.98	26% 549-1579 (2128)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.59	$0.02	-$3.57	36% 3765-6817 (10582)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.51	$0.02	-$3.49	43% 5073-6616 (11689)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.2	$0.01	-$1.19	55% 2289-1901 (4190)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.46	$0	-$0.46	34% 275-525 (800)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$99.9

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

99%

1293-18 (1311)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.96

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.03

Record

35%

250-467 (717)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.37

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$14.29

Record

31%

165-364 (529)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.64

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.58

Record

63%

739-442 (1181)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.01

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.98

Record

26%

549-1579 (2128)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.59

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.57

Record

36%

3765-6817 (10582)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.51

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.49

Record

43%

5073-6616 (11689)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.19

Record

55%

2289-1901 (4190)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

PnL

-$0.46

Record

34%

275-525 (800)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.