Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on November 14?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $46 held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

Total Value

$45.5

Combined PnL

-$44.85

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$45.26

Total Shares45

Combined PnL+$0.14

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.24

Total Shares476

Combined PnL-$44.99

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$29.99	+$0.11	29% 1104-2668 (3772)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$10.14	$10.17	+$0.04	53% 7046-6183 (13229)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.09	$5.1	+$0	35% 250-467 (717)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$18.18	$0.1	-$18.08	63% 740-442 (1182)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.37	$0.08	-$14.29	31% 166-365 (531)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.01	$0.02	-$3.98	26% 549-1579 (2128)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.78	$0.02	-$3.57	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.37	$0.02	-$3.43	43% 5074-6626 (11700)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.2	$0.01	-$1.19	55% 2291-1902 (4193)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	26% 692-1921 (2613)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.11

Record

29%

1104-2668 (3772)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.14

Value

$10.17

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

7046-6183 (13229)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

250-467 (717)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.18

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$18.08

Record

63%

740-442 (1182)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.37

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$14.29

Record

31%

166-365 (531)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.01

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.98

Record

26%

549-1579 (2128)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.78

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.57

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.37

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.43

Record

43%

5074-6626 (11700)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.19

Record

55%

2291-1902 (4193)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

26%

692-1921 (2613)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.