Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on November 14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $119 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$119.35

Combined PnL

-$20.29

Smart Money Entry

99.3¢ → 99.7¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$119.03

Total Shares120

Combined PnL-$2.2

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.32

Total Shares58

Combined PnL-$18.08

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$49.79	$50.02	+$0.23	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$43.53	$43.42	-$0.11	46% 1081-1285 (2366)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$11	$11.18	+$0.18	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$6.84	$6.82	-$0.02	50% 704-694 (1398)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$7.78	$5.08	-$2.49	33% 225-451 (676)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	99% 1243-13 (1256)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.37	$0.19	-$13.04	31% 157-344 (501)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.69	$0.1	-$1.59	44% 5060-6556 (11616)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$35.3	$0.03	-$3.45	36% 3740-6764 (10504)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$49.79

Value

$50.02

PnL

+$0.23

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$43.53

Value

$43.42

PnL

-$0.11

Record

46%

1081-1285 (2366)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$11

Value

$11.18

PnL

+$0.18

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$6.84

Value

$6.82

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

704-694 (1398)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$7.78

Value

$5.08

PnL

-$2.49

Record

33%

225-451 (676)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1243-13 (1256)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.37

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$13.04

Record

31%

157-344 (501)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.69

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.59

Record

44%

5060-6556 (11616)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.3

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$3.45

Record

36%

3740-6764 (10504)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.