Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on November 14?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 93¢ · $190 held · ends Nov 14

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$190.18

Combined PnL

-$1.12

Smart Money Entry

90.4¢ → 92.5¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$164.16

Total Shares177

Combined PnL+$3.66

Yes3 traders

Total Value$26.02

Total Shares311

Combined PnL-$4.78

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 90¢	$45.16	$46.27	+$1.11	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 89.6¢	$26.89	$27.67	+$0.78	28% 1016-2624 (3640)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 92¢	$23.44	$23.5	+$0.06	51% 790-758 (1548)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 92¢	$20.24	$20.29	+$0.05	51% 748-722 (1470)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 92¢	$16.73	$16.77	+$0.04	58% 692-501 (1193)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.2¢	$15.29	$13.46	-$1.83	55% 2277-1842 (4119)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 89.6¢	$12.3	$12.66	+$0.36	72% 841-329 (1170)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.4¢	$21.25	$12.31	+$1.2	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.8¢	$28.98	$12.17	-$2.55	40% 633-964 (1597)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 91¢	$4.64	$4.7	+$0.06	29% 1098-2660 (3758)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$32.72	$0.39	-$0.4	36% 3740-6764 (10504)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$45.16

Value

$46.27

PnL

+$1.11

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$26.89

Value

$27.67

PnL

+$0.78

Record

28%

1016-2624 (3640)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$23.44

Value

$23.5

PnL

+$0.06

Record

51%

790-758 (1548)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$20.24

Value

$20.29

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

748-722 (1470)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$16.73

Value

$16.77

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

692-501 (1193)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.29

Value

$13.46

PnL

-$1.83

Record

55%

2277-1842 (4119)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$12.3

Value

$12.66

PnL

+$0.36

Record

72%

841-329 (1170)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$21.25

Value

$12.31

PnL

+$1.2

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.98

Value

$12.17

PnL

-$2.55

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$4.64

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.06

Record

29%

1098-2660 (3758)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.72

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$0.4

Record

36%

3740-6764 (10504)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.