Will the highest temperature in Milan be 12°C on November 14?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (30%) · Yes at 52¢ · $348 held · ends Nov 14

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 30%

Total Value

$348.1

Combined PnL

$132.55

Smart Money Entry

36.5¢ → 51.5¢

+41% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$200.36

Total Shares342

Combined PnL+$83.73

No7 traders

Total Value$147.74

Total Shares308

Combined PnL+$48.83

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 38¢	$121.2	$188.04	+$66.84	55% 1208-982 (2190)
HaradwaithCTR	Noavg 51¢	$174	$58.64	+$54.97	31% 157-344 (501)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 48.7¢	$34.17	$33.7	-$0.47	40% 633-964 (1597)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 57.4¢	$28.82	$24.08	-$4.74	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$9.46	$10.56	+$1.1	49% 739-774 (1513)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.56	$10.48	+$17.13	36% 3740-6764 (10504)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 58.8¢	$16.95	$8.74	-$3.28	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$7.82	$8.73	+$0.91	50% 704-694 (1398)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$2.95	$3.29	+$0.34	46% 1081-1285 (2366)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$2.09	$1.84	-$0.25	72% 841-329 (1170)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$121.2

Value

$188.04

PnL

+$66.84

Record

55%

1208-982 (2190)

HaradwaithCTR

Invested

$174

Value

$58.64

PnL

+$54.97

Record

31%

157-344 (501)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$34.17

Value

$33.7

PnL

-$0.47

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$28.82

Value

$24.08

PnL

-$4.74

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$9.46

Value

$10.56

PnL

+$1.1

Record

49%

739-774 (1513)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.56

Value

$10.48

PnL

+$17.13

Record

36%

3740-6764 (10504)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$16.95

Value

$8.74

PnL

-$3.28

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$7.82

Value

$8.73

PnL

+$0.91

Record

50%

704-694 (1398)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$2.95

Value

$3.29

PnL

+$0.34

Record

46%

1081-1285 (2366)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.09

Value

$1.84

PnL

-$0.25

Record

72%

841-329 (1170)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.