Will the highest temperature in Milan be 11°C on November 14?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 62¢ · $491 held · ends Nov 14

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$491.35

Combined PnL

$65.5

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 61.5¢

+6% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$470.05

Total Shares766

Combined PnL+$23.8

Yes1 trader

Total Value$21.3

Total Shares55

Combined PnL+$41.7

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 56.5¢	$327.51	$353.61	+$26.1	55% 1208-982 (2190)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 60.1¢	$30.17	$30.6	+$0.43	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 62.8¢	$30.24	$29.39	-$0.85	55% 2277-1842 (4119)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.37	$21.3	+$41.7	31% 157-344 (501)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 63.4¢	$10.78	$10.37	-$0.41	49% 739-774 (1513)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 64.3¢	$9.78	$9.27	-$0.51	51% 790-758 (1548)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 66.8¢	$9.84	$8.99	-$0.85	58% 692-501 (1193)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 50¢	$11.78	$8.01	+$0.47	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 62.8¢	$7.53	$7.32	-$0.21	40% 633-964 (1597)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 63¢	$6.44	$6.23	-$0.21	58% 705-507 (1212)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 61¢	$3.14	$3.14	-$0	51% 748-722 (1470)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 64¢	$3.26	$3.11	-$0.15	42% 1624-2283 (3907)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$327.51

Value

$353.61

PnL

+$26.1

Record

55%

1208-982 (2190)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$30.17

Value

$30.6

PnL

+$0.43

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$30.24

Value

$29.39

PnL

-$0.85

Record

55%

2277-1842 (4119)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.37

Value

$21.3

PnL

+$41.7

Record

31%

157-344 (501)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$10.78

Value

$10.37

PnL

-$0.41

Record

49%

739-774 (1513)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$9.78

Value

$9.27

PnL

-$0.51

Record

51%

790-758 (1548)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$9.84

Value

$8.99

PnL

-$0.85

Record

58%

692-501 (1193)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$11.78

Value

$8.01

PnL

+$0.47

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$7.53

Value

$7.32

PnL

-$0.21

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$6.44

Value

$6.23

PnL

-$0.21

Record

58%

705-507 (1212)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.14

Value

$3.14

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

748-722 (1470)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$3.26

Value

$3.11

PnL

-$0.15

Record

42%

1624-2283 (3907)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.