Will the highest temperature in Milan be 10°C on November 14?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 97¢ · $291 held · ends Nov 14

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$291.38

Combined PnL

-$11.17

Smart Money Entry

94.6¢ → 97.4¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$280.92

Total Shares295

Combined PnL+$0.65

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.45

Total Shares174

Combined PnL-$11.82

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 95.7¢	$128.97	$84.96	-$2.34	40% 633-964 (1597)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.3¢	$65.1	$66.32	+$1.22	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$46.46	$49.17	+$2.71	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$28.24	$29.4	+$1.16	29% 237-570 (807)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98¢	$24.97	$23.95	-$1.02	51% 748-722 (1470)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$21.49	$20.68	-$0.81	58% 705-507 (1212)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.6¢	$19.65	$10.15	-$9.5	55% 2277-1842 (4119)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$6.72	$6.45	-$0.27	51% 790-758 (1548)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$34.71	$0.3	-$2.32	36% 3740-6764 (10504)

241532532432

Invested

$128.97

Value

$84.96

PnL

-$2.34

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$65.1

Value

$66.32

PnL

+$1.22

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$46.46

Value

$49.17

PnL

+$2.71

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$28.24

Value

$29.4

PnL

+$1.16

Record

29%

237-570 (807)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$24.97

Value

$23.95

PnL

-$1.02

Record

51%

748-722 (1470)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$21.49

Value

$20.68

PnL

-$0.81

Record

58%

705-507 (1212)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.65

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$9.5

Record

55%

2277-1842 (4119)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$6.72

Value

$6.45

PnL

-$0.27

Record

51%

790-758 (1548)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.71

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$2.32

Record

36%

3740-6764 (10504)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.