Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on November 13?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 32¢ · $328 held · ends Nov 13

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 22%

Total Value

$328.46

Combined PnL

$174.89

Smart Money Entry

15.8¢ → 32.1¢

+104% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$240.71

Total Shares749

Combined PnL+$124.72

No7 traders

Total Value$87.74

Total Shares126

Combined PnL+$50.17

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 14.9¢	$104.52	$225.4	+$120.87	59% 1163-798 (1961)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 71¢	$26.81	$25.87	-$0.94	58% 481-347 (828)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 74.8¢	$28.12	$20.29	-$1.45	53% 925-815 (1740)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 28.5¢	$31.46	$15.31	+$3.85	35% 414-754 (1168)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 71¢	$13.14	$12.68	-$0.46	26% 118-337 (455)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 64.6¢	$7.87	$8.65	+$0.78	76% 675-216 (891)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 64.6¢	$7.28	$8	+$0.72	53% 6080-5449 (11529)
HE hello.67	Noavg 61.6¢	$139.81	$7.36	+$51.7	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 71¢	$5.08	$4.9	-$0.18	48% 492-535 (1027)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$104.52

Value

$225.4

PnL

+$120.87

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$26.81

Value

$25.87

PnL

-$0.94

Record

58%

481-347 (828)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.12

Value

$20.29

PnL

-$1.45

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.46

Value

$15.31

PnL

+$3.85

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$13.14

Value

$12.68

PnL

-$0.46

Record

26%

118-337 (455)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$7.87

Value

$8.65

PnL

+$0.78

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$7.28

Value

PnL

+$0.72

Record

53%

6080-5449 (11529)

hello.67

Invested

$139.81

Value

$7.36

PnL

+$51.7

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.08

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0.18

Record

48%

492-535 (1027)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.2%

32.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$192.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

292.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.