Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on November 13?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 57¢ · $320 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 38%
$319.81
$180.4
56.4¢ → 57¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+9 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO rocky42019 | Noavg 56.3¢ | $209.83 | $219.93 | +$10.09 | 44% 11-14 (25) |
HE hello.67CTR | Yesavg 34¢ | $161.47 | $69.41 | +$57.18 | 63% 2143-1253 (3396) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $269.37 | $10.99 | +$108.83 | 59% 1163-798 (1961) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $5.6 | $7.9 | +$2.3 | 12% 37-268 (305) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $6.42 | $6.65 | +$0.23 | 53% 6074-5439 (11513) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $3.24 | $3.13 | -$0.11 | 76% 672-216 (888) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $3.09 | $1.41 | +$0.23 | 53% 920-807 (1727) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $18.72 | $0.4 | +$1.66 | 36% 414-750 (1164) |
Invested
$209.83
Value
$219.93
PnL
+$10.09
Record
44%
11-14 (25)
Invested
$161.47
Value
$69.41
PnL
+$57.18
Record
63%
2143-1253 (3396)
Invested
$269.37
Value
$10.99
PnL
+$108.83
Record
59%
1163-798 (1961)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$5.6
Value
$7.9
PnL
+$2.3
Record
12%
37-268 (305)
Invested
$6.42
Value
$6.65
PnL
+$0.23
Record
53%
6074-5439 (11513)
Invested
$3.24
Value
$3.13
PnL
-$0.11
Record
76%
672-216 (888)
Invested
$3.09
Value
$1.41
PnL
+$0.23
Record
53%
920-807 (1727)
Invested
$18.72
Value
$0.4
PnL
+$1.66
Record
36%
414-750 (1164)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.