Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on November 13?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 82¢ · $529 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$529.11
-$4.54
80.4¢ → 82¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 78.9¢ | $269.24 | $284.77 | +$15.53 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 82¢ | $253.18 | $234.65 | -$18.53 | 68% 2063-953 (3016) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $5.13 | $4.86 | -$0.27 | 12% 21-154 (175) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.5¢ | $5.1 | $3.6 | -$1.5 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
1D 1DVSBSTDCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $1 | $1.22 | +$0.22 | 99% 268-2 (270) |
Invested
$269.24
Value
$284.77
PnL
+$15.53
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$253.18
Value
$234.65
PnL
-$18.53
Record
68%
2063-953 (3016)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$5.13
Value
$4.86
PnL
-$0.27
Record
12%
21-154 (175)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$1.5
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$1
Value
$1.22
PnL
+$0.22
Record
99%
268-2 (270)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.