Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on November 13?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $367 held · ends Nov 13

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$366.58

Combined PnL

$3.84

Smart Money Entry

95.9¢ → 97.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$353.37

Total Shares362

Combined PnL+$5.05

Yes2 traders

Total Value$13.2

Total Shares367

Combined PnL-$1.2

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 95.2¢	$161.8	$165.92	+$4.12	35% 414-754 (1168)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$74.19	$74.43	+$0.7	53% 933-821 (1754)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$36.78	$36.85	+$0.07	48% 512-557 (1069)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$29.22	$29.28	+$0.06	25% 93-281 (374)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$28.76	$28.82	+$0.06	53% 6091-5453 (11544)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$18.03	$18.07	+$0.04	26% 872-2506 (3378)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$204.45	$7.29	+$7.81	59% 1163-798 (1961)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.92	$5.91	-$9.01	63% 2143-1256 (3399)

241532532432

Invested

$161.8

Value

$165.92

PnL

+$4.12

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$74.19

Value

$74.43

PnL

+$0.7

Record

53%

933-821 (1754)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$36.78

Value

$36.85

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

512-557 (1069)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.22

Value

$29.28

PnL

+$0.06

Record

25%

93-281 (374)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$28.76

Value

$28.82

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

6091-5453 (11544)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$18.03

Value

$18.07

PnL

+$0.04

Record

26%

872-2506 (3378)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$204.45

Value

$7.29

PnL

+$7.81

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.92

Value

$5.91

PnL

-$9.01

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.