Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on November 13?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $185 held · ends Nov 13

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$184.68

Combined PnL

-$43.16

Smart Money Entry

98.3¢ → 98.4¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$174.31

Total Shares177

Combined PnL+$0.32

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.36

Total Shares592

Combined PnL-$43.47

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$50.65	$50.55	-$0.1	53% 6091-5453 (11544)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$37.21	$37.23	+$0.02	47% 546-625 (1171)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$33.15	$33.52	+$0.37	35% 414-754 (1168)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$29.58	$29.58	+$0	26% 119-337 (456)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$18.25	$18.25	+$0	27% 950-2550 (3500)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$38.91	$7.49	-$31.42	59% 1163-798 (1961)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$5.2	$5.17	+$0.02	53% 933-821 (1754)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.92	$2.87	-$12.05	63% 2143-1256 (3399)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$50.65

Value

$50.55

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

6091-5453 (11544)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$37.21

Value

$37.23

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

546-625 (1171)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$33.15

Value

$33.52

PnL

+$0.37

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.58

Value

$29.58

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

119-337 (456)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$18.25

Value

$18.25

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

950-2550 (3500)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.91

Value

$7.49

PnL

-$31.42

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.17

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

933-821 (1754)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.92

Value

$2.87

PnL

-$12.05

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.62

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.