Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on November 13?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $127 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$127.03

Combined PnL

-$54.58

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$125.55

Total Shares126

Combined PnL-$2.22

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.48

Total Shares592

Combined PnL-$52.36

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$31.11	$31.11	+$0	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.91	$29.91	+$0	26% 890-2526 (3416)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$52.42	$25.04	-$2.44	37% 3509-6100 (9609)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$18.45	$18.45	+$0	19% 113-491 (604)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$8.63	$8.85	+$0.22	54% 994-856 (1850)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$7.13	$7.13	+$0	43% 890-1199 (2089)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.06	$5.06	-$0	46% 562-657 (1219)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$38.91	$1.07	-$37.84	59% 1169-826 (1995)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.92	$0.41	-$14.51	61% 2171-1370 (3541)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$31.11

Value

$31.11

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.91

Value

$29.91

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

890-2526 (3416)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$52.42

Value

$25.04

PnL

-$2.44

Record

37%

3509-6100 (9609)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$18.45

Value

$18.45

PnL

+$0

Record

19%

113-491 (604)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.63

Value

$8.85

PnL

+$0.22

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$7.13

Value

$7.13

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

890-1199 (2089)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

562-657 (1219)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.91

Value

$1.07

PnL

-$37.84

Record

59%

1169-826 (1995)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.92

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$14.51

Record

61%

2171-1370 (3541)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.