Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on November 13?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $259 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$258.61

Combined PnL

-$55.08

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$257.42

Total Shares258

Combined PnL-$2.43

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.18

Total Shares592

Combined PnL-$52.65

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$159.82	$159.84	+$0.02	99% 783-8 (791)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$37.72	$37.72	+$0	46% 562-657 (1219)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$52.42	$25.05	-$2.46	37% 3509-6100 (9609)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$18.49	$18.49	+$0	40% 1494-2225 (3719)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$11.25	$11.26	+$0.01	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.06	$5.06	-$0.01	43% 890-1199 (2089)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$38.91	$0.86	-$38.06	59% 1169-826 (1995)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.92	$0.33	-$14.6	61% 2171-1370 (3541)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$159.82

Value

$159.84

PnL

+$0.02

Record

99%

783-8 (791)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$37.72

Value

$37.72

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

562-657 (1219)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$52.42

Value

$25.05

PnL

-$2.46

Record

37%

3509-6100 (9609)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$18.49

Value

$18.49

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

1494-2225 (3719)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$11.25

Value

$11.26

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$0.01

Record

43%

890-1199 (2089)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.91

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$38.06

Record

59%

1169-826 (1995)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.92

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$14.6

Record

61%

2171-1370 (3541)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.