Will the highest temperature in Milan be 9°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $242 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$241.72
-$2.02
99.2¢ → 98.7¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $59.49 | $59.01 | -$0.48 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $59.48 | $59.01 | -$0.47 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $49.17 | $48.75 | -$0.42 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $42.55 | $42.18 | -$0.36 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $22.93 | $22.73 | -$0.2 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $10.13 | $10.04 | -$0.09 | 48% 337-362 (699) |
Invested
$59.49
Value
$59.01
PnL
-$0.48
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$59.48
Value
$59.01
PnL
-$0.47
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
balthazar<$100Invested
$49.17
Value
$48.75
PnL
-$0.42
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$42.55
Value
$42.18
PnL
-$0.36
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$22.93
Value
$22.73
PnL
-$0.2
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Invested
$10.13
Value
$10.04
PnL
-$0.09
Record
48%
337-362 (699)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.