Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 8°C on November 12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$1.86
-$38.19
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $39.06 | $1.05 | -$10.74 | 65% 444-243 (687) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.51 | $0.25 | -$4.26 | 51% 4781-4575 (9356) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.5 | $0.19 | -$3.31 | 68% 2115-1000 (3115) |
MI mildwindow27CTR | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $117.24 | $0.15 | -$12.55 | 29% 888-2138 (3026) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $44.67 | $0.1 | -$5.58 | 39% 3421-5409 (8830) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.95 | $0.05 | -$0.9 | 79% 502-133 (635) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.91 | $0.05 | -$0.86 | 32% 2924-6249 (9173) |
Invested
$39.06
Value
$1.05
PnL
-$10.74
Record
65%
444-243 (687)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$4.51
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$4.26
Record
51%
4781-4575 (9356)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$0.19
PnL
-$3.31
Record
68%
2115-1000 (3115)
Invested
$117.24
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$12.55
Record
29%
888-2138 (3026)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$44.67
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$5.58
Record
39%
3421-5409 (8830)
Invested
$0.95
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.9
Record
79%
502-133 (635)
Invested
$0.91
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.86
Record
32%
2924-6249 (9173)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.