Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C or higher on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $210 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$210.08
-$0.02
99.9¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $89.91 | $89.91 | +$0 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $42.85 | $42.85 | +$0 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $24.29 | $24.29 | +$0 | 45% 378-468 (846) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $23.09 | $23.06 | -$0.02 | 40% 1456-2158 (3614) |
Invested
$89.91
Value
$89.91
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$42.85
Value
$42.85
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$24.29
Value
$24.29
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
378-468 (846)
Invested
$23.09
Value
$23.06
PnL
-$0.02
Record
40%
1456-2158 (3614)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.