Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on November 12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $245 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$245.2
$0.21
99.7¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $59.8 | $59.88 | +$0.08 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $49.42 | $49.47 | +$0.05 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $42.76 | $42.8 | +$0.04 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.94 | +$0 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $29.89 | $29.94 | +$0.05 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $23.02 | $23.01 | -$0.01 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $10.17 | $10.16 | -$0.01 | 43% 383-513 (896) |
Invested
$59.8
Value
$59.88
PnL
+$0.08
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
balthazar<$100Invested
$49.42
Value
$49.47
PnL
+$0.05
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$42.76
Value
$42.8
PnL
+$0.04
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$29.89
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0.05
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$23.02
Value
$23.01
PnL
-$0.01
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$10.17
Value
$10.16
PnL
-$0.01
Record
43%
383-513 (896)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.