Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $180 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$179.62
$1.22
97.2¢ → 96.9¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $58.38 | $58.74 | +$0.36 | 15% 58-330 (388) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.2¢ | $41.7 | $41.99 | +$0.29 | 37% 3161-5372 (8533) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $29.94 | $29.94 | +$0 | 46% 329-379 (708) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $29.41 | $29.37 | -$0.04 | 23% 84-282 (366) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $18.97 | $19.58 | +$0.62 | 54% 512-439 (951) |
Invested
$58.38
Value
$58.74
PnL
+$0.36
Record
15%
58-330 (388)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$41.7
Value
$41.99
PnL
+$0.29
Record
37%
3161-5372 (8533)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
329-379 (708)
Invested
$29.41
Value
$29.37
PnL
-$0.04
Record
23%
84-282 (366)
Invested
$18.97
Value
$19.58
PnL
+$0.62
Record
54%
512-439 (951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.