Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 11°C on November 12?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 48¢ · $96 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$95.79
-$2.5
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 50%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $23.16 | $23.15 | -$0.01 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $22 | $23 | +$1 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $16.77 | $15.13 | -$1.64 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $15.3 | $13.8 | -$1.5 | 27% 921-2513 (3434) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $14.1 | $13.8 | -$0.3 | 29% 870-2138 (3008) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $4.26 | $4.26 | +$0 | 68% 2062-949 (3011) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $2.71 | $2.66 | -$0.05 | 54% 461-396 (857) |
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$23.16
Value
$23.15
PnL
-$0.01
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$22
Value
$23
PnL
+$1
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$16.77
Value
$15.13
PnL
-$1.64
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$15.3
Value
$13.8
PnL
-$1.5
Record
27%
921-2513 (3434)
Invested
$14.1
Value
$13.8
PnL
-$0.3
Record
29%
870-2138 (3008)
Invested
$4.26
Value
$4.26
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
2062-949 (3011)
Invested
$2.71
Value
$2.66
PnL
-$0.05
Record
54%
461-396 (857)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.