Will the highest temperature in Milan be 10°C on November 12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $150 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$150.42
-$3.95
92.4¢ → 92¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 44%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 92.9¢ | $39.84 | $38.6 | -$1.24 | 37% 3161-5372 (8533) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $28.2 | $27 | -$1.2 | 40% 1447-2158 (3605) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $27.9 | $27 | -$0.9 | 21% 66-241 (307) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $27.3 | $27 | -$0.3 | 29% 876-2138 (3014) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $20.15 | $19.84 | -$0.32 | 54% 512-439 (951) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $5.5 | $5.5 | +$0 | 43% 347-453 (800) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $5.48 | $5.48 | +$0 | 42% 360-502 (862) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$39.84
Value
$38.6
PnL
-$1.24
Record
37%
3161-5372 (8533)
Invested
$28.2
Value
$27
PnL
-$1.2
Record
40%
1447-2158 (3605)
Invested
$27.9
Value
$27
PnL
-$0.9
Record
21%
66-241 (307)
Invested
$27.3
Value
$27
PnL
-$0.3
Record
29%
876-2138 (3014)
Invested
$20.15
Value
$19.84
PnL
-$0.32
Record
54%
512-439 (951)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$5.5
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
347-453 (800)
Invested
$5.48
Value
$5.48
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
360-502 (862)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.