Will the highest temperature in Milan be 9°C on November 11?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $161 held · ends Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$161.34

Combined PnL

$0.23

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$161.34

Total Shares161

Combined PnL+$0.23

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$49.11	$49.17	+$0.06	30% 2654-6198 (8852)
KL klli27<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.93	$29.99	+$0.06	27% 499-1348 (1847)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$24.78	$24.78	+$0	37% 3136-5367 (8503)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$21.34	$21.38	+$0.04	42% 338-475 (813)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.94	$19.98	+$0.04	53% 5580-4967 (10547)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$8.97	$8.99	+$0.02	78% 314-87 (401)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$4.54	$4.55	+$0.01	48% 307-339 (646)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0.01	99% 217-2 (219)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$49.11

Value

$49.17

PnL

+$0.06

Record

30%

2654-6198 (8852)

klli27<$100

Invested

$29.93

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.06

Record

27%

499-1348 (1847)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$24.78

Value

$24.78

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

3136-5367 (8503)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$21.34

Value

$21.38

PnL

+$0.04

Record

42%

338-475 (813)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

5580-4967 (10547)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$8.97

Value

$8.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

78%

314-87 (401)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.54

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

307-339 (646)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

217-2 (219)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.