Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C or higher on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $548 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$548.25
$0
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $455.26 | $455.26 | +$0 | 99% 217-2 (219) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $41.68 | $41.68 | +$0 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.99 | $29.99 | +$0 | 27% 499-1348 (1847) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $10.23 | $10.23 | +$0 | 43% 334-446 (780) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $8.99 | $8.99 | +$0 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $2.1 | $2.1 | +$0 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
Invested
$455.26
Value
$455.26
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
217-2 (219)
Invested
$41.68
Value
$41.68
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$29.99
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
499-1348 (1847)
Invested
$10.23
Value
$10.23
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
334-446 (780)
Invested
$8.99
Value
$8.99
PnL
+$0
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$2.1
Value
$2.1
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.