Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on November 11?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $204 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$204.26
$0.17
99.6¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 39%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $49.04 | $49.08 | +$0.04 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $29.84 | $29.93 | +$0.09 | 27% 499-1348 (1847) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $24.73 | $24.73 | +$0 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $23.31 | $23.31 | +$0 | 46% 317-371 (688) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.94 | +$0 | 53% 5580-4967 (10547) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $19.89 | $19.93 | +$0.04 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $17.64 | $17.64 | +$0 | 43% 334-446 (780) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $8.97 | $8.97 | +$0 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $8.24 | $8.24 | +$0 | 48% 307-339 (646) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | +$0 | 99% 217-2 (219) |
Invested
$49.04
Value
$49.08
PnL
+$0.04
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$29.84
Value
$29.93
PnL
+$0.09
Record
27%
499-1348 (1847)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$24.73
Value
$24.73
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$23.31
Value
$23.31
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
317-371 (688)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.94
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5580-4967 (10547)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.89
Value
$19.93
PnL
+$0.04
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$17.64
Value
$17.64
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
334-446 (780)
Invested
$8.97
Value
$8.97
PnL
+$0
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
Invested
$8.24
Value
$8.24
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
307-339 (646)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
217-2 (219)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
qwen300.fund
No — $49.08
klli27
No — $29.93
Lucerys
No — $24.73
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $23.31
cigarettes
No — $19.94
balthazar
No — $19.93
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $17.64
luciebot
No — $8.97
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $8.24
1DVSBSTD
No — $2.5