Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $449 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$448.59
$4.19
95.8¢ → 96.9¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $331.09 | $334.29 | +$3.2 | 29% 237-575 (812) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $45.27 | $45.22 | -$0.05 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $28.57 | $29.12 | +$0.55 | 27% 499-1348 (1847) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $19.2 | $19.4 | +$0.2 | 53% 5512-4919 (10431) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 95.4¢ | $12.55 | $12.76 | +$0.21 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $8.1 | $7.8 | +$0.08 | 54% 383-322 (705) |
Invested
$331.09
Value
$334.29
PnL
+$3.2
Record
29%
237-575 (812)
Invested
$45.27
Value
$45.22
PnL
-$0.05
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$28.57
Value
$29.12
PnL
+$0.55
Record
27%
499-1348 (1847)
Invested
$19.2
Value
$19.4
PnL
+$0.2
Record
53%
5512-4919 (10431)
Invested
$12.55
Value
$12.76
PnL
+$0.21
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
Invested
$8.1
Value
$7.8
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
383-322 (705)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.