Will the highest temperature in Milan be 13°C on November 11?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 79¢ · $426 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$425.65
$31.71
72.3¢ → 78.5¢
+9% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 73.7¢ | $210.28 | $223.96 | +$13.68 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 72.1¢ | $89.95 | $97.91 | +$7.97 | 69% 2060-946 (3006) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $34.29 | $38.35 | +$4.06 | 28% 214-553 (767) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $20.11 | $23.12 | +$3 | 27% 499-1348 (1847) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $14.6 | $15.7 | +$1.1 | 53% 5455-4894 (10349) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 68.4¢ | $9 | $10.12 | +$1.13 | 29% 2568-6178 (8746) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $9.06 | $9.23 | +$0.18 | 83% 489-98 (587) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $6.66 | $7.26 | +$0.6 | 53% 346-302 (648) |
Invested
$210.28
Value
$223.96
PnL
+$13.68
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$89.95
Value
$97.91
PnL
+$7.97
Record
69%
2060-946 (3006)
Invested
$34.29
Value
$38.35
PnL
+$4.06
Record
28%
214-553 (767)
Invested
$20.11
Value
$23.12
PnL
+$3
Record
27%
499-1348 (1847)
Invested
$14.6
Value
$15.7
PnL
+$1.1
Record
53%
5455-4894 (10349)
Invested
$9
Value
$10.12
PnL
+$1.13
Record
29%
2568-6178 (8746)
Invested
$9.06
Value
$9.23
PnL
+$0.18
Record
83%
489-98 (587)
Invested
$6.66
Value
$7.26
PnL
+$0.6
Record
53%
346-302 (648)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.