Will the highest temperature in Milan be 11°C on November 11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 84¢ · $81 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$80.87
$1.21
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $25.22 | $25.07 | -$0.15 | 27% 499-1343 (1842) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $18.86 | $19.32 | +$0.46 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $16 | $16.8 | +$0.8 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $10.79 | $10.99 | +$0.2 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $7.67 | $7.67 | +$0 | 51% 265-255 (520) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $1.13 | $1.03 | -$0.09 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
Invested
$25.22
Value
$25.07
PnL
-$0.15
Record
27%
499-1343 (1842)
Invested
$18.86
Value
$19.32
PnL
+$0.46
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
balthazar<$100Invested
$16
Value
$16.8
PnL
+$0.8
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$10.79
Value
$10.99
PnL
+$0.2
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Invested
$7.67
Value
$7.67
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
265-255 (520)
Invested
$1.13
Value
$1.03
PnL
-$0.09
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.