Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on November 1?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 28¢ · $139 held · ended Nov 1

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$138.96

Combined PnL

$91.46

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$108.95

Total Shares395

Combined PnL+$101.12

No2 traders

Total Value$30.01

Total Shares42

Combined PnL-$9.66

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 6.4¢	$5.76	$105.18	+$99.41	59% 1921-1351 (3272)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$57.68	$20.75	-$8.92	56% 14224-11027 (25251)
BE berlinskies<$100	Noavg 78¢	$10	$9.26	-$0.74	58% 5887-4316 (10203)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.3¢	$2.07	$3.78	+$1.7	53% 6687-5886 (12573)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$5.76

Value

$105.18

PnL

+$99.41

Record

59%

1921-1351 (3272)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$57.68

Value

$20.75

PnL

-$8.92

Record

56%

14224-11027 (25251)

berlinskies<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$9.26

PnL

-$0.74

Record

58%

5887-4316 (10203)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.07

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$1.7

Record

53%

6687-5886 (12573)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.8%

27.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$235.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

335.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.