Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on November 1?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 49¢ · $602 held · ends Nov 1

Yes49¢No51¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$602.45

Combined PnL

$215.24

Smart Money Entry

25.1¢ → 49¢

+96% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$389.89

Total Shares796

Combined PnL+$213.62

No1 trader

Total Value$21.23

Total Shares37

Combined PnL+$1.62

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 23.6¢	$145.49	$366.56	+$212.75	47% 675-754 (1429)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 69¢	$189.76	$191.33	+$4.91	20% 318-1310 (1628)
└ No leg	Noavg 69¢	$128.24	$100.32	-$28.05
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.2¢	$58.04	$91.02	+$32.96
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 47.2¢	$22.46	$23.33	+$0.87	50% 1843-1820 (3663)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 50¢	$19.61	$21.23	+$1.62	59% 1828-1274 (3102)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$145.49

Value

$366.56

PnL

+$212.75

Record

47%

675-754 (1429)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$189.76

Value

$191.33

PnL

+$4.91

Record

20%

318-1310 (1628)

Both legs:

No$128.2469¢-$28.05

Yes$58.0431.2¢+$32.96

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.46

Value

$23.33

PnL

+$0.87

Record

50%

1843-1820 (3663)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$19.61

Value

$21.23

PnL

+$1.62

Record

59%

1828-1274 (3102)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.