Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 31?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 48¢ · $255 held · ends Oct 31

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$254.97

Combined PnL

$28.18

Smart Money Entry

46.3¢ → 48¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$245.93

Total Shares512

Combined PnL+$28.16

No1 trader

Total Value$9.04

Total Shares17

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothCTR	Yesavg 45.6¢	$140.75	$168.69	+$27.94	21% 300-1130 (1430)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 47.3¢	$58.32	$59.14	+$0.83	50% 1771-1748 (3519)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 49.6¢	$18.7	$18.1	-$0.6	59% 1738-1204 (2942)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 51.9¢	$9.02	$9.04	+$0.02	57% 13591-10418 (24009)

IstarothCTR

Yes

Invested

$140.75

Value

$168.69

PnL

+$27.94

Record

21%

300-1130 (1430)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.32

Value

$59.14

PnL

+$0.83

Record

50%

1771-1748 (3519)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.7

Value

$18.1

PnL

-$0.6

Record

59%

1738-1204 (2942)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.02

Value

$9.04

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

13591-10418 (24009)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.