Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 30?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 67¢ · $868 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$868.17
$26.42
60.7¢ → 67¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 63.4¢ | $322.35 | $317.89 | -$4.46 | 50% 1689-1672 (3361) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 56.8¢ | $215.51 | $239.44 | +$23.94 | 47% 606-687 (1293) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 62.5¢ | $189.95 | $185.16 | -$3.63 | 24% 285-895 (1180) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62.5¢ | $115.8 | $124.06 | +$8.26 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 39.4¢ | $72.94 | $61.1 | -$11.88 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $68.9 | $60.39 | +$2.62 | 53% 6381-5587 (11968) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 57.8¢ | $52.06 | $56.25 | +$4.19 | 61% 20767-13185 (33952) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $8.91 | $9.05 | +$0.14 | 57% 13272-10114 (23386) |
Invested
$322.35
Value
$317.89
PnL
-$4.46
Record
50%
1689-1672 (3361)
Invested
$215.51
Value
$239.44
PnL
+$23.94
Record
47%
606-687 (1293)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$189.95
Value
$185.16
PnL
-$3.63
Record
24%
285-895 (1180)
Both legs:
Invested
$68.9
Value
$60.39
PnL
+$2.62
Record
53%
6381-5587 (11968)
balthazar<$100Invested
$52.06
Value
$56.25
PnL
+$4.19
Record
61%
20767-13185 (33952)
Invested
$8.91
Value
$9.05
PnL
+$0.14
Record
57%
13272-10114 (23386)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.