Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 29?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 9.0¢ · $161 held · ended Oct 29

Yes9¢No91¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$161.28

Combined PnL

$7.68

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$45.83

Total Shares41

Combined PnL+$4.64

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.99

Total Shares32

Combined PnL+$3.03

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 13.7¢	$83.79	$111.46	+$27.66	60% 1676-1133 (2809)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 13.7¢	$46.7	$71.42	+$24.72
└ No leg	Noavg 84.3¢	$37.09	$40.03	+$2.94
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 88.2¢	$41.27	$45.83	+$4.64	23% 290-994 (1284)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$11.69	$2.9	+$3.08	42% 1703-2323 (4026)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$1.15	$1.1	-$0.05	55% 17745-14359 (32104)

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.79

Value

$111.46

PnL

+$27.66

Record

60%

1676-1133 (2809)

Both legs:

Yes$46.713.7¢+$24.72

No$37.0984.3¢+$2.94

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$41.27

Value

$45.83

PnL

+$4.64

Record

23%

290-994 (1284)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.69

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$3.08

Record

42%

1703-2323 (4026)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.05

Record

55%

17745-14359 (32104)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance10.5%

9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$856.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

956.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.