Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 29?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 69¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29

Yes69¢No31¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$235.92

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 68.5¢

+12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,485

Combined PnL+$251.93

No1 trader

Total Value$29

Total Shares107

Combined PnL-$16.02

Yes — 86%No — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Yesavg 61.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$161.01	50% 1689-1672 (3361)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 57.5¢	$429.73	$524.45	+$75.54	47% 606-687 (1293)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 65.9¢	$81.26	$93.61	+$12.36	60% 1636-1103 (2739)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 65.9¢	$64.85	$71.86	+$7.01
└ No leg	Noavg 27.4¢	$22.04	$21.75	+$5.35
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 69.9¢	$69.33	$61.23	-$1.35	24% 285-894 (1179)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Noavg 36.8¢	$71.77	$29	-$16.02	42% 1675-2291 (3966)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$20.24	$19.8	-$0.44	55% 302-247 (549)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$7.4	$7.61	+$0.22	57% 13257-10098 (23355)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 59.4¢	$141.32	$3.55	+$16.96	53% 6381-5587 (11968)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$1,073.76

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$161.01

Record

50%

1689-1672 (3361)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$429.73

Value

$524.45

PnL

+$75.54

Record

47%

606-687 (1293)

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.26

Value

$93.61

PnL

+$12.36

Record

60%

1636-1103 (2739)

Both legs:

Invested

$69.33

Value

$61.23

PnL

-$1.35

Record

24%

285-894 (1179)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Invested

$71.77

Value

$29

PnL

-$16.02

Record

42%

1675-2291 (3966)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.24

Value

$19.8

PnL

-$0.44

Record

55%

302-247 (549)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.4

Value

$7.61

PnL

+$0.22

Record

57%

13257-10098 (23355)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$141.32

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$16.96

Record

53%

6381-5587 (11968)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.