Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 28?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 61¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.8K
$333.15
54¢ → 60.5¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Yesavg 55¢ | $1.9K | $2.2K | +$343.81 | 50% 1654-1641 (3295) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 50.7¢ | $487.95 | $481.47 | -$6.49 | 51% 587-559 (1146) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 53.5¢ | $64.38 | $51.11 | -$2.87 | 27% 281-769 (1050) |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 40.8¢ | $48.17 | $49.22 | +$1.05 | 60% 1599-1049 (2648) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 56.5¢ | $23.33 | $26.82 | +$3.49 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40.8¢ | $26.12 | $22.4 | -$2.44 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 50.5¢ | $99.52 | $7.31 | -$1.29 | 53% 6325-5539 (11864) |
Invested
$1,890.91
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$343.81
Record
50%
1654-1641 (3295)
Invested
$487.95
Value
$481.47
PnL
-$6.49
Record
51%
587-559 (1146)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$64.38
Value
$51.11
PnL
-$2.87
Record
27%
281-769 (1050)
Invested
$48.17
Value
$49.22
PnL
+$1.05
Record
60%
1599-1049 (2648)
Both legs:
Invested
$99.52
Value
$7.31
PnL
-$1.29
Record
53%
6325-5539 (11864)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.