Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on November 2?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 3.5¢ · $67 held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 86%
$66.51
-$262.12
20.1¢ → 3.5¢
-83% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+11 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Mature
26h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $79.19 | $31.72 | +$2.69 | 57% 17226-12892 (30118) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 20.6¢ | $140.69 | $13.5 | -$119.39 | 50% 725-718 (1443) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $12.31 | $7.74 | -$4.57 | 21% 2257-8431 (10688) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.9¢ | $89.15 | $6.16 | -$77.9 | 63% 1690-990 (2680) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.5¢ | $56.59 | $4.72 | -$51.87 | 61% 2332-1521 (3853) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $8.64 | $1.33 | -$7.31 | 55% 554-446 (1000) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $2.05 | $1.16 | -$3.77 | 50% 2032-1997 (4029) |
Invested
$79.19
Value
$31.72
PnL
+$2.69
Record
57%
17226-12892 (30118)
Invested
$140.69
Value
$13.5
PnL
-$119.39
Record
50%
725-718 (1443)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$12.31
Value
$7.74
PnL
-$4.57
Record
21%
2257-8431 (10688)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$89.15
Value
$6.16
PnL
-$77.9
Record
63%
1690-990 (2680)
Invested
$56.59
Value
$4.72
PnL
-$51.87
Record
61%
2332-1521 (3853)
Invested
$8.64
Value
$1.33
PnL
-$7.31
Record
55%
554-446 (1000)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$1.16
PnL
-$3.77
Record
50%
2032-1997 (4029)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.