Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on November 15?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 100¢ · $133 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$133.47

Combined PnL

-$15.73

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$133.21

Total Shares133

Combined PnL+$0.14

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.27

Total Shares178

Combined PnL-$15.87

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$42.81	$42.88	+$0.06	30% 1151-2701 (3852)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$25.43	$25.43	+$0	58% 820-591 (1411)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.94	$19.98	+$0.04	42% 1670-2304 (3974)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.77	$15.77	+$0	34% 329-653 (982)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.97	$9.99	+$0.02	28% 1073-2764 (3837)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.97	$9.99	+$0.02	36% 286-506 (792)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.16	$9.16	+$0	51% 901-849 (1750)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.05	$0.13	-$7.91	17% 92-444 (536)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.18	$0.1	-$6.08	25% 580-1695 (2275)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.91	$0.03	-$1.88	24% 752-2355 (3107)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$42.81

Value

$42.88

PnL

+$0.06

Record

30%

1151-2701 (3852)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$25.43

Value

$25.43

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$19.94

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$0.04

Record

42%

1670-2304 (3974)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$15.77

Value

$15.77

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

329-653 (982)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$9.97

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

28%

1073-2764 (3837)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$9.97

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

36%

286-506 (792)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$9.16

Value

$9.16

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

901-849 (1750)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.05

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$7.91

Record

17%

92-444 (536)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.18

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$6.08

Record

25%

580-1695 (2275)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.91

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.88

Record

24%

752-2355 (3107)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.