Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on November 15?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 99¢ · $240 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$239.94

Combined PnL

-$8.69

Smart Money Entry

99¢ → 99.1¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$239.77

Total Shares242

Combined PnL-$6.98

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.16

Total Shares17

Combined PnL-$1.7

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$62.08	$62.18	+$0.1	53% 7340-6426 (13766)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99¢	$45.32	$45.35	+$0.03	42% 1670-2304 (3974)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99¢	$29.69	$29.71	+$0.03	31% 1097-2456 (3553)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$25.26	$25.22	-$0.04	47% 852-950 (1802)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$23.92	$23.91	-$0.01	58% 820-591 (1411)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$22.64	$22.7	+$0.06	38% 306-501 (807)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$9.89	$9.9	+$0.01	30% 1151-2701 (3852)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$9.09	$9.08	-$0.01	59% 827-567 (1394)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$8.21	$8.25	+$0.04	36% 286-506 (792)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 99¢	$91.12	$3.47	-$7.2	17% 92-444 (536)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.29	$0.16	-$1.7	24% 752-2355 (3107)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$62.08

Value

$62.18

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

7340-6426 (13766)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$45.32

Value

$45.35

PnL

+$0.03

Record

42%

1670-2304 (3974)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.69

Value

$29.71

PnL

+$0.03

Record

31%

1097-2456 (3553)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$25.26

Value

$25.22

PnL

-$0.04

Record

47%

852-950 (1802)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$23.92

Value

$23.91

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$22.64

Value

$22.7

PnL

+$0.06

Record

38%

306-501 (807)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$9.89

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.01

Record

30%

1151-2701 (3852)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$9.09

Value

$9.08

PnL

-$0.01

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$8.21

Value

$8.25

PnL

+$0.04

Record

36%

286-506 (792)

merod<$100

Invested

$91.12

Value

$3.47

PnL

-$7.2

Record

17%

92-444 (536)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.29

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$1.7

Record

24%

752-2355 (3107)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.