Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on November 15?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 76¢ · $816 held · ends Nov 15

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$816.27

Combined PnL

$21.87

Smart Money Entry

76¢ → 75.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$729.45

Total Shares921

Combined PnL+$13.92

Yes1 trader

Total Value$86.82

Total Shares395

Combined PnL+$7.95

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 75.8¢	$492.22	$512.71	+$20.49	62% 1157-711 (1868)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$78.87	$86.82	+$7.95	54% 1232-1038 (2270)
Haradwaith	Noavg 78.9¢	$329.62	$78.01	-$11.31	30% 250-580 (830)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 73.6¢	$46.2	$49.6	+$3.4	53% 7310-6373 (13683)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 73¢	$20.68	$22.38	+$1.7	31% 1097-2455 (3552)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 78.6¢	$20.44	$20.54	+$0.1	71% 917-377 (1294)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 76¢	$15.2	$15.8	+$0.6	38% 306-500 (806)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 73¢	$14.6	$15.8	+$1.2	42% 754-1062 (1816)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79.4¢	$24.19	$14.61	-$2.26	53% 2063-1842 (3905)

vibing123

Invested

$492.22

Value

$512.71

PnL

+$20.49

Record

62%

1157-711 (1868)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.87

Value

$86.82

PnL

+$7.95

Record

54%

1232-1038 (2270)

Haradwaith

Invested

$329.62

Value

$78.01

PnL

-$11.31

Record

30%

250-580 (830)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$46.2

Value

$49.6

PnL

+$3.4

Record

53%

7310-6373 (13683)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$20.68

Value

$22.38

PnL

+$1.7

Record

31%

1097-2455 (3552)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$20.44

Value

$20.54

PnL

+$0.1

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$15.2

Value

$15.8

PnL

+$0.6

Record

38%

306-500 (806)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$14.6

Value

$15.8

PnL

+$1.2

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.19

Value

$14.61

PnL

-$2.26

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.