Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on November 15?
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 68¢ · $670 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 22%
$669.83
$85.88
56¢ → 68¢
+21% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123 | Yesavg 55.7¢ | $490.78 | $577.06 | +$86.28 | 62% 1157-711 (1868) |
 Haradwaith | Yesavg 64¢ | $168.51 | $29.05 | +$0.47 | 30% 250-580 (830) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.4¢ | $25.02 | $25.41 | +$0.4 | 53% 7310-6373 (13683) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Noavg 36.3¢ | $10.9 | $10.8 | -$0.1 | 38% 306-500 (806) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Noavg 33.2¢ | $10.93 | $10.21 | -$0.73 | 31% 1097-2455 (3552) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $9.72 | $10 | +$0.28 | 42% 754-1062 (1816) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $3.7 | $3.6 | -$0.1 | 42% 1670-2303 (3973) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $3.65 | $3.05 | -$0.59 | 53% 2063-1842 (3905) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $0.67 | $0.64 | -$0.02 | 24% 752-2351 (3103) |
Invested
$490.78
Value
$577.06
PnL
+$86.28
Record
62%
1157-711 (1868)
HaradwaithInvested
$168.51
Value
$29.05
PnL
+$0.47
Record
30%
250-580 (830)
Invested
$25.02
Value
$25.41
PnL
+$0.4
Record
53%
7310-6373 (13683)
Invested
$10.9
Value
$10.8
PnL
-$0.1
Record
38%
306-500 (806)
Invested
$10.93
Value
$10.21
PnL
-$0.73
Record
31%
1097-2455 (3552)
Invested
$9.72
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.28
Record
42%
754-1062 (1816)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$0.1
Record
42%
1670-2303 (3973)
Invested
$3.65
Value
$3.05
PnL
-$0.59
Record
53%
2063-1842 (3905)
Invested
$0.67
Value
$0.64
PnL
-$0.02
Record
24%
752-2351 (3103)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.